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Russell "Texas" Bentley on Normandy Four Mtgs & Zelensky's reaction

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I mentioned Russell "Texas" Bentley, an American living in Donbass last bread (>>39047) as a source of intel on the breakaway Republics in Ukraine. He brings a unique perspective to the recent Normandy Four meeting and Zelensky's subsequent rejection of the Minsk/Steinmeier agreements, and also speculates about what could happen before the next Normandy meeting. Here is an excerpt from a post of his from 3 days ago, with one from yesterday to follow.

Normandy 4 and the Real War


Thursday, December 12, 2019

> The first Minsk Agreement was September 5th, 2014, when the ukrop army was reeling from defeats all along the Front. According to Poroshenko, at the time of the ceasefire, the ukrop army had lost 60 to 65 percent of all its operational heavy equipment, and around 100 ukrop soldiers were dying daily.

> The second agreement, "Minsk II" was signed February 12th, 2015, at a time when a major portion of the ukrop army was surrounded and helpless near Dabaltesve. Though both agreements led to temporary reductions in the fighting, and Minsk II did allow the surrounded ukrop military units to evacuate, the war has continued for over 5 years now, with no real end in sight.

> The Steinmeier Formula, first proposed in 2016, is based on Minsk II, and was recently signed by Zelensky and representatives of the Donbass People's Republics on October 1st of 2019, is a plan for peace that encompasses four steps to be taken in a specific, pre-determined and logical order.

> 1) Elections to be held in DPR and LPR, under Ukrainian law and OSCE observation and verification.

> 2) Upon OSCE verification of the elections, immediate implementation of special status for Donbass.

> 3) Amendment of the Ukraine Constitution confirming and codifying the special status of Donbass.

> 4) Ukrainian control of Russian border crossings in Donbass that are currently not under their control.

> The Steinmeier Formula delineates these four steps, in this exact order. That is what Zelensky signed in October, and the recent Normandy Four meeting was for the specific purpose of bringing these steps about. However, the chances of any of this ever actually happening, are, as they say, "wafer thin".

> At the recent Normandy Four meeting, Zelensky attempted to basically rewrite the entire agreement, by insisting that Ukraine take control of the border as the first step instead of the last, and by saying there was no way the Constitution of Ukraine could be amended or changed. On this basis, the Steinmeier Formula and the Minsk Agreement are dead in the water. It is as if the Normandy Four met to discuss the purchase of a house and Zelensky showed up trying to sell them a bicycle.

> So, if Steinmeier and Minsk are moot, what is the alternative? It appears Zelensky and his US/NATO masters still intend to maintain the military option. And indeed, from here in Donbass it continues to appear that this war will not end without one last major battle that will result in the complete destruction of the military power of one side or the other. There are other possible scenarios, including a "frozen war" that can continue almost indefinitely, but the Steinmeier Formula is not among them.

Post 40108 View on 8kun





> Let's connect the following dots - The punk Zelensky's smug, almost arrogant attitude at the recent Normandy Four meeting and his subsequent reneging on the agreement. Reliable info about another imminent false flag chemical attack by the White Helmets in Syria which may happen any day now. Again. Republican shit-hook Senator Cory Gardener's "SMART ACT" to designate Russia as a "State Sponsor of Terrorism", and “Russian-supported armed forces in the Donbas region of Ukraine as Foreign Terrorist Organizations” within the next three months. The largest NATO exercise in 25 years, "Defender Europe 20" with 60,000 soldiers (including 20,000 US soldiers to be shipped in) to begin in April 2020. Four months from now.

> The next Normandy Four meeting, if it happens, is also scheduled for four months from now, too. This will be after Pompeo's State Department determines whether the Donbass Republics qualify as terrorist organizations and Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. (Does anybody want to guess which way that's going to go?) Which will be after the upcoming false flag chemical attack in Syria which will this time, (and as usual without any proof) be blamed on Syria AND Russia and just in time for the biggest NATO build-up across Europe this century. Are you with me, Pilgrim?

> When Zelensky goes to the next Normandy meeting, backed up by the French pretty boy and the German toad, they will attempt to dictate the terms to Putin - either allow the total re-write of the agreement, to include above all the immediate control of the border by Ukraine, or else the agreement will be voided, (which will, of course, also be blamed on Russia) and then Russian and the Donbass Republics become officially listed as "terrorists" by the goddamned US gov, and it's back to the "Anti-Terrorist Operation" where the only alternative is The Big Ukrop Offensive, total war, the ethnic cleansing and genocide in Donbass that has been held in check for the past 5 years only by the credible threat of a Russian counter-offensive. But the question now is whether Russia will risk an all-out war with an already mobilized and ready NATO battle group perched on her borders, in order to save a few million Russian-speaking citizens of the Republics. Now, that is the question, isn't it?

> This "re-negotiation" of the Minsk and Steimeier Agreements can be presented in a way to give Russia a semi-palatable, (but false) face-saving excuse, if they decide to take it. "The agreement still stands, we have simply agreed to re-adjust the timetable, to allow Ukraine to take control of the border first." Once the borders are sealed, once Ukraine's "territorial integrity" is re-established, once Russia has capitulated, all the talk of voting and special status can be shelved. The "lustration", "filtration" and "punishment", in other words, the ethnic cleansing and genocide that will inevitably and immediately ensue...

> I expect the ukrops and their NATO masters to go through with their schemes, and present an ultimatum to Putin at the next Normandy Meeting in April 2020. I expect Putin will throw the ultimatum back in their faces and call their bluff and assure them that if Ukraine attacks the Republics, we will counter-attack, and Russia will be with us...